Bitcoin bear market check

Human emotions are driven by extremes. There is Greed, and there is Fear. It is cyclical.

In investing, the most important thing is to recognize when you are wrong, in the context of the long term Macro backdrop.

If you follow my blog, it should be clear to you that I am a big believer in Bitcoin, and I do not believe it will ever "die". The times for the concept to fail are long gone.

By observing data, what we do know is that the halving cycle usually provides some pretty good guidelines to understand how Bitcoin price might behave. In the last few days we have been witnessing a fast appreciation of the asset, which has moved from $17K to $21K pretty much in a straight line. Neither here nor there.

What is more interesting in my opinion, is that Bitcoin topped with the Coinbase IPO, and it is providing a possible bottom with the FTX collapse. Weekly overbought RSI at the top, and weekly oversold RSI at this (presumed) bottom.

For context, the last two halving cycles have resulted in a bottom after respectively 777 days, and 889 days (after striking the last ATH). Currently (if the bottom holds), we are at 917 days.

I am not here calling the bottom, however it is likely that we are much closer to the end of the bear market than the beginning. Can Bitcoin lose 50% from here and head to $10K on a brutal wick? Absolutely. However it won't change the thesis that the next halving cycle is upon us, and much higher prices will probably be seen.

DISCLAIMER:

The above are my opinions only. Due your own diligence and trade at your own risk. Nothing contained in this website should be construed as investment advice. Any reference to an investment's past or potential performance is not, and should not be construed as, a recommendation or as a guarantee of any specific outcome or profit.