$1.9 Trillions Stimulus, how does it affect me?
It is certainly the most discussed news of the last few days. The US government is about to pass one of the largest stimulus programs in history, a Coronavirus package with a 1.9 Trillion Dollars price tag.
Two legitimate questions come to mind:
1) How does it affect me
2) Where is the money coming from
First some math. $1.9T divided by 330M Americans is $5,750 per person. The real question anyone should ask is: "Am I ok taking $5,750 of extra personal debt to be repaid sometimes in the future because of this last bill".
An argument could be that the above is a very simplistic way to look at the stimulus, and that in fact it is necessary to spend 1.9T on top of everything already spent since the Covid-19 pandemic started because the economy needs help in order to survive. I partially agree however I am also scared at the sheer size of money printing happening with no sustainable path of repaying it.
For context, in 12 months a total of $4.5T of stimulus have been passed or $13,650 per person.
Let's set aside for a moment my reservations and let's look at the breakdown of the bill. Some solid sections of direct support for families via stimulus checks, extended unemployment insurance, renters and homeowners funds, will alleviate financial stress for a short period of time.
I strongly believe in financial safety nets however they need to exist in the context of a sustainable economic system.
Unfortunately, all these money pulled out of thin air doesn't come without consequences. The dollars you have in your wallet or in your bank are getting less relevant by the day. Inflation is eating at their purchasing power. It is evident in the context that even if a $1,400 stimulus check might help you pay rent for another month, it is not much help in solving the problem of never becoming able to save enough for a down payment on a house or, more importantly, reaching financial security. Prices for goods are increasing faster than your ability to earn from your labor therefore you are playing an eternal game of catch-up.
Stimulus bills ultimately contribute to asset inflation and the people that benefit the most from it are the ones that own inflation sensitive assets like stocks, real estate, precious metals and Bitcoin.
Savers get killed as interest rates are forced to zero and safe government bonds provide no inflation protection at all.
Now to second question: Where is the money coming from?
Basic Economic Theory holds that Central Banks and Governments have distinct responsibilities.
Central Banks should be independent and set Monetary Policy. The Fed has a mandate to guarantee price stability and maximum employment. They should use the tools at their disposal to guarantee the economy runs smoothly.
Governments are responsible for Fiscal Policy and spend the money they raise through taxation and borrowing.
In modern times an interesting and dangerous trend has emerged. Central Banks, via money printing out of thin air, are willing to buy as much government debt as necessary. The two supposedly distinct entities are in fact working together in the most strict sense. The separation of Church and State no longer exists,
What happens when the Federal Government votes a new large stimulus bill is that it needs to be financed by selling bonds. Not all bonds will be purchased by the FED, however they do not really have a limit on how much they can or will buy, therefore any shortfall from market participants will be covered with newly created money.
We do not have too many historical references, however these monetary experiments can end up in two different ways. Either we follow Japan's experience where their Central Bank has effectively been financing the federal government for years without triggering the kind of inflation everyone would expect, or we could end up like Weimar Germany where currency lost all of its value because of inflation. We could also end up somewhere in the middle.
The real issue in my opinion is that if before these extreme financing measures were handled very carefully and with lots of criticism, we now seem to have full consensus from most politicians and actors at the FED. We know what happens when everyone is too certain of something in life. They are generally proven wrong.
One thing is certain: the US$ will continue to lose value and inflation sensitive financial assets will continue to appreciate until this cycle is either stopped or it breaks under its own weight. All currencies in history have eventually trended to zero and I believe it will not be an exception for the US$. For that very reason I continue to allocate to inflation hedges lie Bitcoin and precious metals.
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